will shenmue 3 outfund bloodstained?

That was my point early on. Bloodstained had a bright beginning like the strike of a match but then went on to a steady burn like a good hard wood bonfire. Not a huge blaze but a good hot long running fire. At the end when the reminder hit it was like dumping a bucket of oil on the fire. Not explosive, but certainly made the fire burn with every increasing in fervor.

Shenmue 3 right now is reminding me of someone striking a match and throwing into a bucket of gasoline. Good spark to start, BIG huge whoosh and flame and boom. But then afterwards there nothing left but some smoldering embers and all your fuel is gone. And honestly I think E3 has more to do with that than anything else. I think if they had been more "organic" about it, pushing it to all the video game blogs and websites it could have had a good steady hot burn like Bloodstained did with a big flare up at the end that could have really pushed up its numbers.

I agree with this 100% completely.

Well the 48 hour reminder will dump some new fuel on the campaign. The question is will the embers still be burning bright enough to ignite the fuel.

Will the fuel make the embers sputter but maybe burn a little brighter?
Will the embers make the fuel take off into an inferno?
Or will the fuel be too much and quench the embers?

Only time will tell.

Can't argue with that, but still, looking at kicktraq just for daily data, I never liked looking at projections
It is looking pretty bad, only around 5k to 6k for today...

Ya I don't ever take the "Projections" graph as law. If nothing else it's always a day behind the action. But I do find it to be decent baseline to show a reasonably conservative estimate.

That said, I think 4.5M is a reasonable estimate assuming they get traction on a last 48 surge. And I do think breaking 5M is a real possibility. How much they go beyond that? I think surpassing 5.25M is an outside possibility. But unless they get a surge, some how, at the end on par with the magnitude of the one they had at the beginning I would say that 5.5M is the absolute limit. And honestly I do not see them breaking that or really even coming close.




Edit: Whoops!!! My BBcode bold and underline markers got a little out of whack there

I really don't think so, just because of how much it SLOWED DOWN. Look at the pledges per day for Shenmue and Bloodstained, and exactly how much they've fallen off for both after the initial rush. Bloodstained didn't have as much of a rush, initially, but maintained some momentum per-day, while the contributions to Shenmue basically dropped dead.





If Shenmue doesn't break 4 million before the last two days (and I don't think it will), there's no way it'll make 5.5 million.

They may have extra time but that doesn't do anything for you if there is no momentum.  And looking at the daily totals they are not climbing at the same rate that Bloodstained did.  Add in that there is some obvious backlash from the community about how the campaign is being run, what is being ask of them, and what they would be getting in return be it stretch goals or rewards and it doesn't paint a very positive picture.  I think that between E3 burning out donors early and the way the campaign is being run it's just not going to add up.

I mean other than the initial E3 announcement and some initial press right afterwards, have there really been any NEW stories about Shenmue 3 from any of the videogame mags/sites/blogs?  I don't follow them so I don't know if Shenmue has received the same level of attention, but when we were doing the Bloodstained campaign it seemed like someone was releasing a story about RotN or doing an interview with  almost every other day on some blog or gaming site.  You can't beat that kind of press.

I don't really doubt that there will be some kind of surge at the end of the campaign.  What I doubt is its magnitude.  Things just really aren't adding up.  There's really been too much going on gaming wise on KS.

I really wish them the best and part of me really does hope that they surpass RotN.  That kind of press for "independent" game makers (regardless of how independent or not he, Iga, or any of these game devs may actually be [and I'm questioning that, just recognizing that some have brought that question up especially in reference to Shenmue 3]) is a good thing.  I'm hoping that one of two things will happen.  Either the AAA game companies will wake up and realize that they are missing the boat and bring back these kinds of games, or they'll jump ship completely and let all the current game devs go work for independent companies.  The second of those two would be VERY rough and I admit it would very bad for a lot of folks at least in the short term and we might loose a few who give up completely.  BUT!!! It could lead to a renaissance of sorts in the game industry which I think would be a very good thing long term.

E3 happend on the second day of the KS campaign not the first???

As of now, 10 million is practically impossible...