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Post by Apollonian on Sept 4, 2015 20:26:42 GMT -6
This is not meant to be a pessimistic post, I simply would like to wrap my head around the state of gaming as it is now after I have seen several of my favorite series go down the drain this last gen and with them the departure of my some of my favorite game creators (...they didn't go down the drain, that would be rude, but you get what I'm saying).
My question to all of you is this, is Bloodstained a success story as a game? That is to say, does it show, as I have seen many people say, that there is a demand for this particular style of game?
My personal opinion on this matter is that, unlike what many people have claimed, the success of this kickstarter does not necessarily translate into Bloodstained being viewed as a successful game. I feel that that assessment can only be reached once the game is completed and the sales data comes in from the non-backers (and the lower-tier backers that had to buy their copies separately). Bloodstained is without a doubt an extremely successful kickstarter as evidenced by the over $5.5 million that it raised from the 64k+ backers.
So let's start there...$5.5+ million and 64k+ backers. Does this show that there is demand for this game? I would say yes. Does this demand justify the money a publisher would have to shell out to have it made? That is what I am not so certain about (please post to tell me your views). While Bloodstained has a lot of money driving it, the 64k backers (to a publisher) would only show that 64k people want the game (at least enough to support it this far in advance). I am no expert on game publishing but I have never once heard of a publisher aiming for a goal this low. I am well aware that many people will buy the game upon release but we have no honest way of knowing how many. Iga's track record is great for creating wonderful, addicting games, but the sales numbers were only really notable for Symphony of the Night and they had been on the decline with subsequent games. If there is truly a demand for this style of gameplay from gamers (not just us relatively small number of fans) why weren't we buying his games?
Out of the 64k backers only 913 were supporting the game and not receiving it for their donation (these numbers are in no way official but this is the listed number from the $5 tier). If a publisher had funded the game they would not have seen a $5.5 million profit. For starters they have to subtract the cost of publishing the game (duh, right). Then there is the fact that they could not milk $5.5 million from 64k people. The game would cost around $60 making the sales $3.84 million minus operating costs. My point is that until we know how many other people are going to buy it can we really claim that this kickstarter indicates sufficient demand for us to "stick it" to the publishers that passed on it like we are told about in the press conferences? As much as I hate corporate greed we live in an era of gaming where publishers and developers are closing left and right and sales data favors these horrible ftp/ptw games that are cheap to make and are able to turn a profit. Starting to ramble and I can feel myself getting ready to go off on the Konami/Capcom/Vandal Hearts situation and so I am just going to cut myself off and ask for you guys to leave your comments and enlighten me. Hopefully I missed some crucial point that would prove beyond a doubt that this game will be successful and we can look forward to non shooter/fanservice/ftp games that seem to be dominating the market now.
tldr: Iga is being sued for whipping his assistant in the eyes. Iga's response when questioned by the police "Die monster!"
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Post by XombieMike on Sept 4, 2015 21:09:56 GMT -6
Consider that the Kickstarter was alive for a single month with no real advertising other than some YouTube videos. They only asked for a little, but got a lot. I'm sure IGA felt the same way you do, so that's perfectly fine. Is the game a sucess? If that's the real question we can't know yet just like you stated. We will get the game though, so I'll get what I paid for. Supporting IGA this way feels like a personal sucess to me. The game is not likely to be something that I don't like based on IGA's previous titles.
Now if the real question is will the game sell like hot cakes, we don't know. It's being released on a whole slew of platforms though. People will notice.
Here is the real challenge. It's up to you and I to support this game and share it with our friends. If you want it to be a sucess in sales it up to us. If you want a follow up game, we need to make this one a hit.
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Post by crocodile on Sept 4, 2015 22:12:50 GMT -6
I don't think I've seen anyone call Bloodstained a successful game (since its not out yet), but rather called a successful campaign (which is unquestionably true as you've said) and a success story both for IGA and his compatriots as well as for gamers who want this style of game. The "Metroidvania" is not a game genre that is going to lead to a massive (as in multi-million) number of sales nor has it ever been such a genre. The thing is that a game doesn't have to sell millions upon millions of copies if its made with a modest (relatively speaking) budget to a dedicated audience. Between games like Axiom Verge, Guacameele, Shantae, Ori and the Blind Forest, Cave Story, Shadow Complex, etc. games like Metroid and Castlevania have been finding critical and finical success in the indie scene. As has often been said, major publishers have an increasing tendency to want "all of the money" instead of just some of it and are thus prone to taking big risks with big expensive new IPs that if successful will net HUGE revenue (Destiny), only fund AAA titles they deem to be sure hits (Call of Duty) or tap into the mobile market where if you are lucky you can make a big return with a small investment (but only if you're super lucky). Success can be found in the "mid-tier", its just many publishers aren't interested or unsure of how to exploit that space. Being the second biggest videogame kickstarter of all time doesn't prove that millions upon millions of people want to buy the game but it does prove a large number of people are willing to put their money where their mouth is and demonstrate they are willing to pay a high price ($85 average) for something they clearly care deeply about. Anyway you slice it, almost 6 million dollars from just consumers is a huge sum and larger than the budget of many games. In fact, Bloodstained earned more through KS than its entire budget would have been if it only met its initial goal. Now understand, the subset of people who kickstart games are always a very small portion of the overall consumer base (it requires a lot of faith to put down a non-refundable payment for a game 2+ years in advance) so comparing that number directly to sales is meaningless. What you can do is compare the backer numbers and dollars to other big Kickstarter games (Pillars of Eternity, Wasteland 2, Divinity: Original Sin, etc.) and see how they line up. All of them have come out to critical acclaim and sold well (to my knowledge at least). Even smaller KS have been success stories with games like Shovel Knight selling about 700k copies across all the platforms its out on right now. Given how Konami has been acting of late, its clear they don't really care about the opinions of gamers. They are going to turn more towards their profitable health and gambling businesses. Bloodstained could have raised $15 million and they still probably wouldn't have given a shit. What matters is that we are getting the Gothic styled Metroidvania from IGA and crew that we have been denied for over 7 years. We showed we wanted this and now we are getting it. I could care less about the "screw you Konami" narrative, I backed because I wanted another Igavania and I wasn't getting it any other way. I don't see any way in which that isn't a success story. While its true that the game itself might not deliver (that's always a risk with any KS) , I don't see any reason right now to not be optimistic about the development of the game
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gunlord500
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Post by gunlord500 on Sept 4, 2015 22:52:04 GMT -6
It's a fair question, rvmcypressgrave. We can't truly know if this game will be a success until it's actually released. Like Mike said, it's on us to buy copies and try to get our friends to buy copies too.
However, I think it's also fair to say that Bloodstained has a very good chance of being a financial success--i.e recouping at least 10 million dollars in terms of sales. IGA is well known, there are masses of gamers eager to thumb their noses at Konami, and some of Bloodstained's features, such as Miriam customization, seem very likely to generate a great deal of enthusiasm. All these factors lead me to believe it's reasonably likely the game will be a financial success. But it is on IGA and his team as well. I do hope we'll see some gameplay footage soon...
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2015 2:32:50 GMT -6
Hopefully I missed some crucial point that would prove beyond a doubt that this game will be successful and we can look forward to non shooter/fanservice/ftp games that seem to be dominating the market now. Whether or not it will be a stellar success is up for debate, but it will be profitable.The conclusion that it will be profitable can be drawn from two things: -The KS had over 60k people supporting it. This translates to 60k people being willing to preorder and the number of those tend to be several times smaller than the sales. -With its current funding, it just needs to jump over the 4.5 mil it got from DS to achieve a profit. All it needs to do is sell between 100k and 150k (depending on the pricetag and adding release fees). To break even would mean getting around double the preorders at a $40 pricetag. That is some 30k sales per platform worldwide. To say it won't be able to achieve such numbers would be rather unreasonable. Now that we have determined that it will be profitable, let us move on to whether it will be a success that will push the industry in the right direction. In order to make a proper assessment we need to remove Kickstarter from the equation and operate on the assumption that all the funding for future games will be drawn from a publisher. We have a 10 mil budget across 5 platforms. Lets classify that success as getting back your invested money and making an additional 50% on top of it. The number we're looking at is close to 20 mil once you consider the royalties and some unexpected cost, we'll round that up to 20. So, if it moves more than 450k units (500k actually, but we already have 60k preorders) worldwide at $40, I'd say that at least some of the publishers would be inclined to support these kinds of projects in the future. Judging by the shown KS interest and current trends, the chances of achieving that seem rather likely. TL;DR: It will be a success, but whether it will be enough of a success is not certain.
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Apollonian
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Post by Apollonian on Sept 5, 2015 6:26:03 GMT -6
Profitability for Bloodstained is undoubted at this point. It was funded by fans and more people will certainly buy it. Is it profitable in the eyes of the publishers? That is the real question. I know during the panels there is an emphasis on the "we sure showed those publishers" theme and I understand that a lot of this is for show. Obviously you need to maintain enthusiasm as you can't go into one of those things without being really energetic and supportive of your own game. I take issue with that statement though because I am a huge fan of Iga and gaming in general and am genuinely worried about whether these games are sustainable in today's gaming economy or if kickstarter is the only place they can truly thrive.
Xombiemike said "Now if the real question is will the game sell like hot cakes, we don't know. It's being released on a whole slew of platforms though. People will notice.
Here is the real challenge. It's up to you and I to support this game and share it with our friends. If you want it to be a sucess in sales it up to us. If you want a follow up game, we need to make this one a hit."
As pessimistic as my post may sound I am 100% sure this game will sell well. I do worry though that if Iga tries to continue creating games that he would still not be able to convince a publisher to support him and if he does is it going to be sustainable in a world where a powerhouse like Kojima productions isn't seen as worth the risk?
I certainly try to convince people, as I always have, but I guess I am disheartened by the game choices my friends make. As much as I would rant about how awesome Castlevania is, the people I have spoken to and showed the games to always gravitate toward some trite jrpg or unimaginative shooter, and I end up on here or Castlevania dungeon essentially preaching to the choir. I certainly have dropped a lot of cash on this game and will probably end up getting it on every platform.
Crocodile said "What you can do is compare the backer numbers and dollars to other big Kickstarter games (Pillars of Eternity, Wasteland 2, Divinity: Original Sin, etc.) and see how they line up." That is a good idea though I would have several questions (not sure you could answer, so I probably need to research) about the comparison. Firstly I need to know the genres for all of those games, then see the sales data. I think it would be really helpful to know if any of them found success with a subsequent game, if another was created (nonkickstarter).
gunlord500 said " IGA is well known, there are masses of gamers eager to thumb their noses at Konami, and some of Bloodstained's features, such as Miriam customization, seem very likely to generate a great deal of enthusiasm. All these factors lead me to believe it's reasonably likely the game will be a financial success. But it is on IGA and his team as well. I do hope we'll see some gameplay footage soon..." I agree that many people are angry at Konami but I don't think that would have much of an effect on sales tbh. I am personally upset as I love Castlevania (Classic, Iga, and Coxian), Contra, Metal Gear, and Vandal Hearts (II is my favorite game) but gamers aren't buying the games they are making and if they can be more profitable elsewhere then I understand. The blame falls on gamers in general who don't buy the games or use emulators instead of supporting the devs. I just don't want these franchises to dissappear or turn into ftp mobile games. I also am looking forward to some gameplay footage.
Nyahahaha said "To say it won't be able to achieve such numbers would be rather unreasonable." I completely agree with this iteration being profitable but I worry about the sustainability of Iga's games post kickstarter.
"So, if it moves more than 450k units (500k actually, but we already have 60k preorders) worldwide at $40, I'd say that at least some of the publishers would be inclined to support these kinds of projects in the future.
Judging by the shown KS interest and current trends, the chances of achieving that seem rather likely." I feel like that is likely too but what publishers in particular would you see as willing to support future endeavors that are not backed at least partially by kickstarter? As mentioned above by Crocodile a lot of these games find a sort of niche in "mid-tier" publishing so is that what we can expect and is that who Iga was shopping his game to in the first place? I was under the impression that he was going to the major publishers (I believe I heard those exact words) and I am not convinced that the kickstarter has proved sufficient demand to them. Knowing how braindead they are I feel like the best we can hope for is that they make the games, market it to us 64k+ fans and then charge us $300 for it. lol As for the 450k units I feel it is likely to move them but from the sales data I've seen the only Igavania to do that was Symphony of the Night (perhaps there is better sales data and I am just looking in the wrong place). I just want the enthusiasm for Iga's games to go beyond the hype of a successful kickstarter. I need these games to be around until I go out in a blaze of glory when I am ~90.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2015 7:56:08 GMT -6
I feel like that is likely too but what publishers in particular would you see as willing to support future endeavors that are not backed at least partially by kickstarter? As mentioned above by Crocodile a lot of these games find a sort of niche in "mid-tier" publishing so is that what we can expect and is that who Iga was shopping his game to in the first place? I was under the impression that he was going to the major publishers (I believe I heard those exact words) and I am not convinced that the kickstarter has proved sufficient demand to them. Knowing how braindead they are I feel like the best we can hope for is that they make the games, market it to us 64k+ fans and then charge us $300 for it. lol As for the 450k units I feel it is likely to move them but from the sales data I've seen the only Igavania to do that was Symphony of the Night (perhaps there is better sales data and I am just looking in the wrong place). I just want the enthusiasm for Iga's games to go beyond the hype of a successful kickstarter. I need these games to be around until I go out in a blaze of glory when I am ~90. They didn't go exclusively to major publishers, they went around to just about every publisher out there. Thing is, even if the demographic for this is mid-sized, so is the production. If the sales get high enough, publishers will be convinced to support projects like this. A steady flow of surely profitable medium investments is better than a big AAA gamble and I'm sure a lot of publishers would jump at the opportunity, but the problem is that the execs are generally clueless people so it needs to get painfully obvious for them to realize it. Show them good sales and they'll be convinced. As for Iga specifically, his approach cuts costs in sequels, so I wouldn't worry about him dropping off the gird ever again. Also, you might wanna use quotes in the future as they make posts a bit more readable. If you want to quote several people, either use the BBCode option or press the little gear next to the post you want to quote, press "select post" and then just hit "quote" (after you selected all the posts) on one of the desired posts to get them quoted all at once.
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Post by Lelygax on Sept 5, 2015 20:44:46 GMT -6
rvmcypressgrave, we don't are experts in that, but surely publishers are, right? Now think about that. IGA said that the initial goal was to show the publisher that there was enough interest, now he did get more than 10x what he needed.
Looking at this shows a lot, shows that if he reached the initial goal it would be enough to risk and publish, since they could profit, now imagine how assured you can be with that amount of money that they got on the campaign. This line of reasoning could fail in another cases, but in this specific case where a lot of publishers didn't had accepted this project and then only one did after knowing and thinking about all this, surely won't will fail.
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Post by Motoko on Sept 5, 2015 22:15:21 GMT -6
Commercial success or not, this project is the comulation of IGA's past works which continued to live on in the fan's hearts even when Konami had IGA locked in the dungeon; unable to do what he really wanted.
Carrying that note, I believe this game/genre will find a new audience in today's market. Gamers are waking up and starting to tire of AAA Gaming and the publisher nonsense, yearly releases, and uninspired sequel after sequel. Yeah, Bloodstained does have a publisher backing it, but end of the day they took a risk. Plus, IGA completely owns the IP which is a huge boon and testament to his name.
Right now IGA and the team are hard at work creating something out of pure passion; they're making a game- not a franchise. First things first is to get the game finished, send out the rewards, and await for fan reaction. Like Mike said, it's up to us to spread the word in true grassroots fashion. Also, the pricing of the title is critical in attracting new comers.
I do hope Bloodstained becomes widely recognized, but not for sales sake; because people really want to play it and have a good ol' time.
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Post by crocodile on Sept 6, 2015 0:32:33 GMT -6
Just to be clear, when I was talking about "mid-tier" I was referring solely to the relative budget of the game in question. Any publisher is capable of funding games of any sort if they have the appropriate resources - the term wasn't meant to be descriptive of the publishers themselves.
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Post by nekurors on Sept 7, 2015 1:34:33 GMT -6
I get what you mean, but we can only be sure of the answer when the game is out. It should be noted that after SOTN, all the others main Castlevania's titles were released for the Nintendo handhelds (yes i am not considering the 3D and no-rpg ones which has different gameplay formulas, despise some being good), and now we are going for multiplatform so everyone can get the title isntead of only the owners of a certain console, so it is supposed to sell more than the last ones, maybe up to 1 million or even surpassing SOTN.
About the genre itself, it's hard to measure, indie developers seems to be increasing the numbers of titles for this genre while the big companies are getting away from it. But this is happening for a bunch of other "old" genres, like survival horror and psycologic horror as Resident Evil (before 4) and Silent Hill series, look at how many new indie games are making success with these while the big ones are leaving it behind.
Truth to be told, companies are going for the profit, which means they are going for mobile, microtransations, pay-to-win and all the boring stuff for us core gamers, since it is easier to get money from casual gamers through generic games which is easier and cheaper to develop. It seems very likely that the innovative games and these who touch us in some way will be developed by smaller companies and indies who care more about the player instead of the money. It may not be that bad, it seems the market is changing, but there will be games for everyone including us.
But really i can't wait to see the data from Bloodstained sellings, i am into the comparisons and these stuff. Btw i remembered about the Pokemon franchise, look at how they sold at their first game (red/blue), they never got close to that again after that, sometimes it seems a natural reaction to decrease sales each new iteration of the same franchise, except when there is innovation to renew the formula and somehow attract new players, as Castlevania tried to do with the 3D, but failed (in my opinion), the 3D games had succeded in some titles, but at the cost of losing the soul of the franchise, like what happened with Resident Evil, from RE1 to 3 and Code Veronica the game was one genre, starting from 4 it became fast peaced FPS, the new games stills good, but the feelings of the old ones are completely gone, that's why times to times i found myself again playing them agai. If you ask me, they could dismember the RE franchise into two, so we could have a dedicated RE game for each genre and satisfy both player demographics.
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Post by XombieMike on Sept 8, 2015 21:25:24 GMT -6
We need to spread the demographic out a bit. I'm glad we have regular posting females on this board, because it gives me hope. We need to gain a younger audience too. The mid to late teens would be great. Heck, if the game isn't too mature or if there are censorship settings, I want to get my oldest daughter playing with me. Of course, after the wife and I are done with our initial play through.
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Post by zoned87 on Sept 8, 2015 22:11:30 GMT -6
I am expecting this game to be successful it may not be a million seller but I think it will do "big for an indie" meaning probably somewhere in the 500k-800k sales range. We need to spread the demographic out a bit. I'm glad we have regular posting females on this board, because it gives me hope. We need to gain a younger audience too. The mid to late teens would be great. Heck, if the game isn't too mature or if there are censorship settings, I want to get my oldest daughter playing with me. Of course, after the wife and I are done with our initial play through. Most people who experienced Metroidvanias in their heyday particularly igavanias are probably in the 25-40 category these days I think that's why its skewed towards an older audience. At 28 years old myself I was just a kid when I played SOTN.
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Post by Apollonian on Sept 8, 2015 22:15:57 GMT -6
We need to spread the demographic out a bit. I'm glad we have regular posting females on this board, because it gives me hope. We need to gain a younger audience too. The mid to late teens would be great. Heck, if the game isn't too mature or if there are censorship settings, I want to get my oldest daughter playing with me. Of course, after the wife and I are done with our initial play through. I wouldn't be surprised if the demographic for this game wasn't as limited as we might think. My girlfriend and my little sisters like the games and as you said there are female posters here too. I know a lot of the older gamers prefer the classical castlevanias while younger ones like the metroidvania style so I think the genre has a lot of appeal to a younger audience that likes games that are a bit easier. I guess we can't ever be sure exactly unless the systems start scanning our government embedded id chips to keep track of gaming stats.
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Post by Vert333 on Sept 8, 2015 22:37:35 GMT -6
We need to spread the demographic out a bit. I'm glad we have regular posting females on this board, because it gives me hope. We need to gain a younger audience too. The mid to late teens would be great. Heck, if the game isn't too mature or if there are censorship settings, I want to get my oldest daughter playing with me. Of course, after the wife and I are done with our initial play through. true, i think the fact that the characters look so cool will bring in more people. My 14 year old cousin saw me when on the bloodstained kickstarter, saw some characters and became interested. I explained to him how the game is a spirtual successor to casstlevania and how igavanias work. He is currently playing through sotn and he says that he wants to play through bloodstained wih me(co-op). I think bloodstained wont have a problem, it caught my attention. Im youngish(19).
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gunlord500
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Post by gunlord500 on Sept 9, 2015 15:39:14 GMT -6
We need to spread the demographic out a bit. I'm glad we have regular posting females on this board, because it gives me hope. We need to gain a younger audience too. The mid to late teens would be great. Heck, if the game isn't too mature or if there are censorship settings, I want to get my oldest daughter playing with me. Of course, after the wife and I are done with our initial play through. I can see the game being popular with women, since it has a strong, powerful female protagonist. I'm not sure about the younger audience, though. It depends on whether the game gets a T rating or an M if it has a lot of violence and stuff. I suppose it's more likely than not it'll get a T, given the ratings of most IGAvanias...
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Post by Maker on Sept 9, 2015 16:15:39 GMT -6
Are we not buying these games? Comes up as a question to which I too was curious. A quick google search and a wikipedia page of Iga himself might hold the answer with some. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koji_IgarashiFrom Curse of Darkness forward all games are on mobile platforms... I'm sure that didn't help matters outside of Japan. That said Lament of Innocence is a 3d castlevania as well which arguably could push back even further the game that started this "dry spell" on non mobile platforms to Chronicles / SoTN depending on how much attention one paid to the genre. That said between those and Harmony of Despair is a gap no 2d purists would touch. As a snob like that myself I can attest to not giving one single care about any game past chronicles in the entire series. I heard from a friend one, "3d castlevania" and immediately wrote it off like the close minded idiot I was in those days. Even without that mentality a lot of people just don't like "handheld" game consoles like the Advance etc:. And before anyone corrects me with the Wii... Yes, I am aware it is technically a console, in the same manner that a 200 dollar laptop is technically a computer. Bloodstained is poised to have the audience that no other game in this historical list has had opened to it. All major platforms are covered. Will it be profitable... as outlined above, yes. Is it a success? I would argue it already has been, or at least the idea of it. Despite it not being released, we have a decent idea of what IGA wants to do, a track record of his that is very solid and those who fronted the money certainly are not doubting this. While like you I also share concerns about publishing costs, I cannot imagine it will cause problems. To be fair I do like your assessment on the situation. Will be interesting to see the reactions of those who still don't know this game exists upon release.
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